Beyond the classroom

Higher education faces a defining moment as geopolitical, economic and technological crises converge to reshape the global sector.

Rising nationalism, inflationary pressures and Al-driven job displacement are rendering traditional university models increasingly fragile and unsustainable.

Leaders must embrace geopolitical strategy and prioritise critical thinking to

remain relevant in a volatile, talent-driven economy.

For decades, educational institutions have benefited from an idea that was rarely questioned: the world was moving toward greater integration and cooperation. Borders were opening, international mobility was increasing and education was seen as a universal good, removed from the tensions of power. Today, that idea is being put to the

The rivalry between great powers — the fragmentation of globalisation, rising inflation and artificial intelligence — is redefining the conditions under which educational institutions are accustomed to operating. What were once considered external factors — geopolitics, the global economy, technology — have become defining forces transforming education from within. As a result, educational institutions are no longer seen solely as spaces for learning and research, but are increasingly becoming tools of

competitiveness and geopolitical influence.

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Student mobility, talent attraction and scientific and technological advancement have

become elements increasingly associated with a country’s power. Nations such as the United States, China, the United Kingdom and the UAE have consequently dedicated enormous resources to attracting talent and leading the race in innovation. This is known as the talent economy: a model built on human capital, innovation and knowledge as the primary drivers of economic development. The countries that attract,

develop and retain the brightest minds will be those that lead the global economy.

The question, therefore, is no longer whether geopolitics, economics or technology will affect education — they already are. The real issue is whether educational institutions are capable of reading the world in front of them correctly and redefining their purpose

accordingly.

Anew era of geopolitical competition

The first signs of this shift are already becoming evident. While the number of international students worldwide grew from 2.1 million in 2000 to nearly 6.9 million in

2022, many of the main destination countries have begun tightening their immigration

policies. In the United States, the Trump administration has made it more difficult to obtain a student visa. The F-1 visa rejection rate reached 35% in 2025, reducing the

Countries such as Canada and Australia, historically strong advocates of educational

internationalisation, have introduced restrictions aimed at limiting the intake of

international students.

The same is happening in research. Restrictions imposed by the United States under the US CHIPS and Science Act, or the JRC 2030 Strategy of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, have established a new rule: international research

collaborations are now subject to national security considerations. This is narrowing the

scope of research and the collaborations that can be undertaken.

Yet these measures will bring with them a new problem: while governments attempt to protect strategic sectors such as Al, semiconductors and biotechnology, they are simultaneously restricting the flow of talent on which they depend to remain

competitive.

Astudy by McKinsey & Company reveals that, as a result of these new restrictions, the United States will face a shortage of 300,000 workers in the semiconductor industry. Universities and research centres thus find themselves increasingly at the intersection

of cooperation and strategic competition.

Demographic dynamics may also alter the landscape for talent attraction. While Europe and East Asia face ageing populations, Africa will account for more than half of global

demographic growth by 2050. By then, the continent's working-age population will,

represent 85% of the increase in the global labour force, redefining where talent will be

found in the future.

The growing economics of educational uncertainty

Just as geopolitics is redefining the conditions under which educational institutions operate, economics is changing their capacity to do so. Economic forces are radically transforming the sustainability and growth of the education sector, compelling

institutions to reconsider how they will finance their future.

The first of these forces is inflation. Educational institutions face mounting financial pressure: they struggle to cover rising costs with diminishing revenues. Global inflation exceeded 8% in 2022, the highest level in decades, dri

costs and families’ ability to finance an international education.

ing up both campus operating

In the United States, the cost of university education has tripled since 1980. In 2022

alone, institutional expenditure rose by 14.9%, while revenues fell by 5.4%. In the United

Kingdom, nearly half of all universities face fiscal deficits, driven primarily by the decline in international students and rising costs.

This is compounded by a growing trend towards cuts in state budgets for public education. Many governments, particularly in the Global South, face increasingly limited resources for health, pensions and education. In 2023, more than 40% of the world's population lived in countries that spent more of their budgets on servicing external debt

than on education or health.

The World Bank has demonstrated that a 1% increase in external debt is associated with a 2.9% decrease in investment per school-age child. This has created a paradox in education financing: the greater the debt, the lesser the capacity to invest in future

generations.

Exchange rate volatility is also altering who can access an international education. For thousands of students from economies with unstable currencies, the macroeconomic context has become a factor in their decisions. A 2023 survey revealed that 51% of international students reconsidered their studies due to exchange rate fluctuations, while 4 in 10 reported not having sufficient resources to cope with the rising cost of

living in their destination countries. Is the university degree still fit for purpose?

But even if institutions manage to adapt to the new geopolitical and economic realities, a deeper question emerges: is the educational model still fit for purpose in responding

to these new realities?

Artificial intelligence is now redefining the relationship between education and

employability. According to the World Economic Forum, 39% of labour market skills will

be transformed or rendered obsolete, and 59% of the workforce will require reskilling by 2030. At the same time, automation is beginning to affect entry-level graduate jobs in

This transformation is also changing how companies attract talent. In 2024, around 45%

of companies eliminated university degree requirements for many of their vacancies,

calling into question whether a university degree is now a sufficient guarantee for the new realities of the labour market. The question, therefore, is no longer what institutions teach, but what added value they offer in a world where technology is increasingly

replacing our work.

Educational institutions have survived wars, economic crises and technological revolutions. What makes this moment singular is that these three pressures have converged and are reinforcing one another: geopolitics restricts mobility and fragments scientific collaboration; economics erodes the financial sustainability of institutions and students’ access to them; technology calls into question the employability value of the

university degree itself. The challenge is not to manage each of these forces in isolation,

but to understand that they operate simultaneously and systemically.

From reacting to anticipa’

In this context, educational institutions cannot afford to be reactive. Adapting does not mean responding to crises once they have already arrived but developing the institutional capacity to anticipate them. This requires, first, incorporating geopolitical and economic analysis into the strategic governance of institutions: boards and leadership teams must include among their competencies the ability to read the global

environment, not only to manage academic and financial operations.

Second, institutions need to design future scenarios — not a single linear strategic plan, but multiple possible trajectories — that account for both opportunities and risks. Geopolitical fragmentation, for example, does not only close doors: it also opens spaces for those institutions capable of positioning themselves as bridges between blocs and as poles of talent attraction. Third, and most urgently, institutions must build financial contingency plans that reduce their dependence ona single source of revenue, a single student recruitment region or a single teaching model. Institutions that understand that global uncertainty is not a passing threat, but the new permanent condition in which

they operate, will be best placed to turn turbulence into competitive advantage. Redefining the purpose of education

Against this backdrop, the central question raised at the outset takes on its full urgency: are educational institutions reading the world in front of them correctly? The answer will determine whether they are capable of adapting or whether they will remain trapped in

models designed for a reality that no longer exists.

The real challenge lies in redefining the purpose of education: instilling capabilities such as critical thinking, independent judgment, adaptability and continuous learning. Not as a response to a pedagogical trend, but as a condition of institutional survival in a world defined by uncertainty. Because institutions that continue preparing students for

yesterday's world risk becoming irrelevant in tomorrow's.