A system under structural pressure

India’s higher education expansion challenge is clear, with significant additional capacity required if the country is to meet its stated target of 50% gross enrolment, with an estimated need for around 1,200 new universities. Neither the public nor private sector can meet this requirement alone, hence the significant government-level interest in TNE.

Though there is hesitancy among Indian academics, TNE does offer some benefit to domestic Indian higher education. External investment through IBCs should relieve country-wide capacity challenges and retain students who may have travelled overseas – thus stemming brain drain. Faculty development and knowledge transfer, especially for TNE partner universities, benefits students and academic ambitions. A TNE partnership may also open the door to joint research activity.

Policy has moved from intent to execution

TNE has been present in India for a long time – be that dual degree programs, joint degrees or articulation agreements - but the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 really did change the opportunity. The NEP’s new frameworks allow recognised foreign institutions to establish IBCs in India with academic and administrative autonomy, and we are now seeing tangible market entry. A cohort of international institutions—predominantly from the UK and Australia—have already established or announced a presence. As financial pressures sweep across the ‘Big Four’, we anticipate an exponential increase in TNE as an alternative revenue source.

‍

A distinct value proposition is emerging

Early IBC provision in India is still defining a pricing and positioning model. Programmes are typically priced below home-campus fees but above domestic alternatives.

‍

This positioning creates a middle ground for a growing segment of aspirational Indian households who are cost-sensitive relative to the cost of studying abroad but remain quality-sensitive relative to domestic provision.

Of course, for students, the proposition is a win-win. They gain an internationally recognised qualification without the costs and uncertainties associated with mobility, including relocation expenses and tightening visa conditions in traditional destinations. For students less interested in an ‘international student’ experience, this offer is very compelling.

For international institutions, this pricing structure creates a pathway into a high-volume market without requiring immediate price compression to local levels.

‍

Demand is concentrated but highly addressable

The top states for TNE – with young, but comparatively wealthy populations – sit within economically advanced states, and major urban centres. It’s here that education demand and requisite income intersect and could be an indicator of future TNE opportunity.

Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat have the requisite wealth and youthful populations, but crucially QS Global Student Flows data shows that cities in these states have strong outbound student participation already. Demand for international education is already validated, and some prospective students seeking higher education will consider an IBC instead of travelling abroad. These states are have highly active technology and manufacturing sectors, creating credible links between TNE provision and local labour market demand. QS Labour Market Intelligence forecasts that the number of tech jobs in India will rise by 3.1% by 2030; similarly the number of people working in manufacturing will increase by 3.2%. These jobs must be filled by skilled workers, positioning TNE provision as a direct mechanism to align graduate output with the needs of India’s fastest-growing sectors.

‍

The student demand signal remains strong

The size of the Indian market cannot be understated. Outbound mobility reached 880,000+ in 2024, and is forecast to reach 938,000 by 2030. India is the second largest source of international students,  one of the world’s largest sources of international students, with flows to the ‘Big Four’ continuing to grow over time.

‍

This sustained outbound demand is a proxy for unmet domestic capacity. IBCs have the potential to capture a portion of this demand in-country, offering an alternative to physical mobility while preserving the perceived value of an international degree.

Branch campuses have a good perception

Students clearly understand the value proposition of studying at a branch campus. 43% correctly said that IBC fees will be lower than those of a campus overseas, and 49% said its reputation would be better than domestic universities. Overall, 48% of students said an IBC would be better than a local university. The signs point to a real appetite for high-quality, locally-delivered education.

‍

The market has shifted from opportunity to delivery

As we detailed in our article outlining the five steps to assess your TNE readiness, success depends on the right market opportunities, and an institution’s ability to align those opportunities with its capabilities.

What we’ve outlined here is that demand is established, policy is enabling and the early adopters have moved. What remains uncertain is but which institutions will execute their TNE strategy effectively within the constraints of regulation, pricing and local relevance.