.jpg)
Is the ‘Big Four’ losing its grip?
27 February 2026
Insights
Capabilities
Conferences
Is the ‘Big Four’ losing its grip?
The ‘Big Four’ – US, Canada, Australia and the UK – have reigned as the top four study destinations for over a decade. UNESCO data shows that these four English-speaking countries still maintain more than half the global share of the international student market, but the numbers are declining.
- The US has over 1,120,000 international students
- Canada has over 990,000 international students
- Australia has over 820,000 international students
- The UK has over 730,000 international students
For the first quarter of this century, the US has maintained its position as the world’s top study destination, but we should not underestimate how it has lost almost half of the market share it used to have – from 28% to 16%. It is since the pandemic years that the slow shrinking of the Big Four market share has been truly accelerating.
Many sector experts have suggested that the dominance of these educational powerhouses is soon to be over, indicating a move to a multipolar sector that could constitute a 'Big 10’, ‘Big 14’ or ‘Big 20’ model. QS Global Student Flows focuses on 15 top and emerging study destinations and predicts that although the top four study destinations should retain their status, their combined market share is forecast to fall to around 35% by 2030.
The rise of a multi-player model
Global higher education as a market is a dynamic, ever-changing landscape whose players and flows are constantly susceptive to changes, evolution, and sometimes major disruptions. Perhaps we should expect a more diversified, decentralised picture of top host destinations for international students.
Rather than viewing global higher education as transitioning into a multipolar phase now, it may be more accurate to understand the system through the lens of uni-multipolarity, a concept drawn from International Relations theory characterised by a single dominant power coexisting with multiple regional powers. Applied to higher education, this suggests that regional challengers have not only balanced the top higher education powerhouse, but more destinations have started to rise and take part in a larger podium.
Whether the US will remain the most popular study destination for the next 25 years is an impossible question to answer, but as one of three potential scenarios, QS forecasts point to a strengthening of regional hubs alongside the emergence of new ones. As a result, international student flows are expected to become more evenly distributed, with market shares increasingly shared among a wider group of destinations as new players enter and consolidate their position in the global higher education landscape.
The emerging challengers
The total international student population is projected to grow from almost seven million to approximately 8.5 million by 2030 (QS Global Student Flows). While the market leaders are expected to face intensified competition from alternative study destinations, QS predicts a model in which select educational hubs in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East would benefit from the shift away from traditional anglophone destinations.
Two top European challengers, France and Germany, have ambitious plans to remain among the most popular destinations. While France has achieved 89% of their goal in attracting half a million international students by 2027, Germany has almost achieved this figure – near 490,000 - in the winter semester of 2024/25. Türkiye wants to attract 500,000 foreign students by 2028, having secured over 340,000 international enrolments in the 2023/24 academic year. Japan’s goal is to receive 400k international students by 2033, having already achieved almost the same numbers as Türkiye by 2024.
In East Asia, we see South Korea ahead of their schedule, surpassing five thousand more international students in 2025 than their 300,000 goal for 2027. Another ambitious challenger is Taiwan, which aims to attract 20,000 more than Korea by 2030, having achieved almost 40% of the target by the end of the 2024/25 year.
The QS Global Student Flows report highlights other emerging challengers too, such as the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, India, Saudi Arabia, and Hong Kong, forecasting their presence among the top 15 study destinations by 2030 – due to their investments in internationalisation, campus facilities, expansion of English-taught programmes, and positioning as an export sector that can absorb current and new international demand. Combined, these destinations make up 30% of the current international students’ market – that’s almost 2% more than US shares in 2001.
Between dominance and diffusion
When we consider the latest QS World University Rankings, we see Asian destinations leading globally for debuts, with over 50 new institutions to the rankings. Meanwhile, Europe is the most represented region in number of ranked institutions.
We also see that among the top twenty most-represented metropolitan areas in the QS WUR 2026, half are located in Asia, while only two are located in one of the Big Four locations. This suggests a significant shift towards emerging regional educational hubs outside of the ‘Big Four’.
The QS Best Student Cities 2026 revealed for the first time that Seoul and Tokyo are the world’s top two study destinations. Among the top 20 best student cities, eight are in Asia and six in Europe, suggesting that these emerging hubs are increasingly desirable for international students when it comes to affordability, employability and student experience – and a stronger incentive to study closer to home.
Looking forward, perhaps the Big Four should not entirely lose faith in their position of privilege yet. We may be walking towards a multipolar era of global higher education, but before we do, we will experience a gradual, transitional stage in the market. To ensure success while navigating this shift, institutions must keep investigating the data, policies, and trends to see which forecasted scenarios become reality.
There are no articles here