Global Student Flows | China

2030 outlook

In brief

• China is projected to return to the international student number peak it saw before COVID-19 in 2026.
• Connections the country has made through the Belt and Road Initiative will see China’s international student numbers reach around 550,000 by the end of the decade.

China’s position as a global study destination is set to strengthen at a measured pace in the second half of the decade, with international enrolments projected to grow by 2.5%. The growth between now and 2030 is primarily led by rising interest from neighbouring Asia and Belt and Road partner countries. The gradual momentum reflects Beijing’s recalibrated education diplomacy – anchored in affordability, scholarship reach, and expanding transnational education (TNE) – while structural constraints such as English-teaching capacity and institutional readiness temper the pace of growth. For China’s leading universities, the important question is whether campuses can adapt in time, to manage more linguistically and culturally diverse intakes.

Since the pandemic, China’s foreign student growth has slowed. The international student population, which peaked at about 490,000 before COVID-19, had yet to return to that level by 2024, with our forecasts projecting a full recovery only by 2026. By 2030, international enrolments are projected to reach 550,000, implying an average annual growth of 2.5%. Growth is not evenly distributed. High-growth regions include South Asia, East Asia and Africa, while demand from Europe and North America remains steady but modest. China’s appeal has broadened as a result of active scholarship diplomacy, lower costs, and the diversification of TNE arrangements that now allow partial study pathways into Chinese universities.

China’s international student base remains unusually fragmented compared with other major destinations. Unlike the US, UK, or Australia - where a few countries dominate inflows - China’s largest source markets, mostly from East and South Asia, each account for only a small share of the total. This pattern partly reflects the fact that, in other leading destinations, Chinese students make up a dominant share of international enrolments, concentrating their source markets in a way China’s own inflows do not. This diversification cushions against single-market volatility but also complicates recruitment strategies and programme design.

The top-sending countries continue to include Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Russia and several other East Asian states. These countries along with African nations represent some of the fastest-growing pools of students - driven largely by affordability, scholarships, and geopolitical proximity through the Belt and Road Initiative.

European students, though smaller in number, remain strategically significant. Students from the region tend to be more concentrated in higher-level and research programmes, distinguishing their profile from that of most other source regions. However, competition for European students is intensifying, as Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia have rolled out more targeted campaigns with English-medium offerings and simplified visa regimes.

A crucial development in China’s international education strategy comes with the 2025 policy directive aimed at attracting foreign students. The new framework sets explicit objectives for quality control, diversification, and alignment with China’s broader soft-power goals.

The policy’s implementation coincides with the expansion of transnational education (TNE), including joint programmes and branch campuses in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. These arrangements offer students an entry point to China’s education system while reducing pre-arrival uncertainty.

While growth prospects are strong, linguistic and institutional capacity remain key bottlenecks. Most international students in China still pursue programmes in Chinese, but the next wave of demand – especially from Africa and South Asia – is tilted towards English-medium instruction. Yet, China’s English-taught capacity remains limited, and far below levels in Malaysia or South Korea. If enrolments from African and South Asian countries accelerate as projected – adding 30,000 students by 2030 – this could place pressure on English-medium teaching resources, student support services, and curriculum design. Expanding English-medium offerings will therefore be pivotal if China is to maintain its competitiveness against other Asian hubs. Without such expansion, rising demand may strain quality standards and student satisfaction, particularly in second-tier cities where international education infrastructure is less developed.‍

China’s strongest growth outlook lies in South and Central Asia, regions where education ties overlap with trade and infrastructure diplomacy. The China–Pakistan relationship is an important one – Pakistani enrolments are expected to rise by more than 30% by 2030, underpinned by generous scholarships and institutional partnerships. Similar trends are evident in Bangladesh and Uzbekistan, where governments increasingly view Chinese degrees as pathways to technical and engineering expertise.

These markets are characterised by price sensitivity but also strong cultural and political alignment. For China’s universities, they represent steady, if low-margin, growth. However, they also raise questions about diversification and integration – how to accommodate large cohorts whose primary motivation is affordability and scholarship availability rather than academic ranking.

China’s foreign student strategy now sits alongside a more crowded regional field. Japan and South Korea are executing high-visibility internationalisation campaigns, combining aggressive marketing, post-study work rights, and strong English-medium offerings. Malaysia, meanwhile, has positioned itself as a bilingual, low-cost English-language hub, appealing to the same demographic segments China is now seeking.

The projected rise in foreign students – potentially surpassing 550,000 by 2030 – will test the resilience of China’s higher education system. For China, the challenge will be maintaining quality amid expansion, and ensuring provincial universities are equipped to share the load. The success of China’s internationalisation agenda will depend not only on attracting more students but on sustaining satisfaction, employability, and cultural integration outcomes that reinforce China’s reputation as a study destination.

The three scenarios for 2030

and how they impact China

Regulated Regionalism

Regulated Regionalism reflects a future where China pursues a coordinated strategy to become a global education power by 2035. While global perceptions of Chinese education have historically lagged behind, governmentled initiatives and significant investment are attempting to improve its reputation. Driven by the ‘Study in China’ campaign, this model is not about limiting student intake but strategically expanding it to serve national interests. In line with this, the government is actively attracting quality educational resources, particularly in science, engineering, and technology, and encouraging high-level TNE partnerships to bolster these demanding fields.

This expansion is fuelled by the rising standards and global rankings of Chinese universities and the immense soft power of the BRI. A majority of international students are from BRI nations, drawn by scholarships and demand for graduates with Chinese experience to lead key projects across Asia and Africa. These developments signal a highly interventionist and mission-driven approach to international education, directly linking it to geopolitical and economic goals.

As top destinations like the US and UK face rising costs and regulatory complexities, China’s relative affordability presents an effective alternative. This is leading a growing number of students, particularly from South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa, to choose China for its high-quality, lowcost education and proximity to home.

This scenario reflects a future where China actively encourages and expands student mobility as part of its global outreach. China is rapidly establishing its role as a primary regional education hub, with enrolment becoming more strategically targeted, mission-driven, and aligned with its long-term national development and foreign policy objectives.

Hybrid Multiversity

The Hybrid Multiversity scenario outlines a future where China leverages its national digital education strategy to expand its global reach, allowing international students to complete foundational studies online before travelling to China for specialised, in-person experiences. China currently aims to expand the capacity and platforms for practical and online education as part of its plan to be a global education powerhouse by 2035. To achieve this model, China must invest heavily in highquality digital infrastructure, bilingual online learning platforms, and cross-border education partnerships with universities in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

In this model, students begin their degrees offshore through state-backed Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) platforms. Chinese platforms like XuetangX and iCourse International already host thousands of university courses, many in English. Alternatively, they can study at one of the more than 1,000 Sino-foreign joint venture or international branch campuses (IBCs) operating within their home regions. The onshore component in China is reserved for high-value activities such as advanced lab work, capstone projects, and internships with leading Chinese companies in technology and international trade.

Preparatory language courses are also delivered through a blended model. Students begin learning Mandarin remotely via specialised platforms from institutions like Beijing Language and Culture University (BLCU) before transitioning to an immersive environment in China. This approach allows physical university campuses to be utilised for hands-on learning and research, supported by the world’s largest digital education resource repository, the ‘Smart Education of China’ platform.

The Chinese government champions this hybrid model as a strategic tool for international outreach and soft power, rather than a means to manage migration. By exporting its digital education platforms and standards through initiatives like the World Digital Education Alliance, China aims to deepen its integration with the Global South and BRI countries. This strengthens regional influence by embedding Chinese technological and educational norms globally.

This model presents a highly scalable, affordable, and flexible pathway to a Chineseaccredited degree, significantly lowering barriers to entry for students worldwide. Widespread adoption would cement China’s position not just as a destination for students, but as a global provider of digital education infrastructure and content.

Talent Race Rebound

Talent Race Rebound outlines a scenario where international education becomes a primary instrument for addressing China’s long-term demographic challenges and immediate hightech skills shortages. Guided by the ‘Education Blueprint 2035’, the government is strategically positioning the country to attract and, crucially, retain a new generation of highly skilled global talent in priority sectors.

Under this model, China is implementing a highly targeted talent acquisition strategy. This is centred on the new K visa, effective 1 October 2025, which aims to attract young international graduates in STEM fields. This policy creates an expedited pathway by removing the traditional requirement for prior work experience or employer sponsorship – a significant advantage over the more restrictive immigration systems in the West. This aligns education and immigration policy directly with the nation’s workforce needs in strategic areas like AI, advanced manufacturing, and green technology.

For international students, the appeal is powerful, offering not just world-class qualifications but also one of the clearest post-study work pathways available globally. This is particularly attractive to graduates in high-demand fields who see a direct route to employment with China’s technology giants like Huawei and Tencent. The proposition is further strengthened by significant regional incentives, including housing subsidies and start-up funding in key innovation hubs like Shenzhen and Shanghai.

At its core, this scenario reflects a pivot from using international education primarily for soft power to employing it as a vital pipeline for skilled migration. Students with qualifications in strategic fields are viewed as essential future contributors to China’s innovation economy, ensuring the nation has the human capital required to overcome demographic headwinds and lead in the global race for technological supremacy.

Institutional reputation is a key factor for students

Reputation is an increasingly important priority for students when making decisions about their studies. While students look to reputation to gauge a variety of aspects about their potential study destinations, institutions need to develop ways to communicate the strength of their own reputation in ways that students can interpret and internalise for themselves. Amid these shifting dynamics, it is encouraging to see the reputation of Chinese institutions has remained remarkably stable in recent years. This is also at a time when several countries with well-established higher education sectors, such as the UK, US and Canada have seen their Academic Reputation decline.

Furthermore, there is a cohort of nations who have seen their reputation rapidly grow, but lack the capacity, infrastructure and career outcomes to become significant destinations. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have all seen their top universities raise their Academic Reputation rank by 179, 124 and 201 places respectively. Brazil has also improved its average Academic Reputation by 90 places, with India rising by 29 places on average.

The picture is even more positive amongst graduate employers, where the reputation of Chinese institutions has made significant progress in recent years, also at a time when the reputation of institutions in established, highly developed countries has declined.

Whilst reputation is an important priority for over half of those looking to study in China, this factor is especially important to candidates from within East Asia, with over 70% of those prioritising it. Given the importance of this region in determining future inbound student flows to China, this presents Chinese institutions with a significant opportunity to benefit from their burgeoning reputation.

Furthermore, when deciding which course to study, whether their course leads to their chosen career is one of the top three priorities for students looking to study in China. This presents a further opportunity for Chinese institutions that have elevated their reputation amongst employers and can demonstrate positive graduate outcomes. Their potential to benefit from shifting patterns of global student flows is immense and their enhanced reputation provides a strong platform with which to do this.

The reputation of institutions among employers is something which can be significantly influenced by the outcomes of its graduates.

Whilst the reputation of Chinese institutions amongst employers has shown positive movements in recent years, the same cannot be said for the outcomes of their graduates. Amongst the top universities in China, there is a significant discrepancy between employer reputation and graduate outcomes with institutions unable to deliver the outcomes that merit such a strong reputation. Institutions need to make graduate employability a core component of their curricula design, ensuring that graduates have the appropriate mix of skills to meet the existing and future demands of local employers. In doing so, institutions can transform their capacity to become drivers of economic growth and provide a strong foundation for their reputation amongst employers.

Focusing on graduate outcomes will be critical to maintaining Employer Reputation, which in turn will sustain the ability of institutions to benefit from inbound international student flows. Institutional recruitment strategies will have to pivot in order to incorporate compelling, quantifiable and data-driven narratives which speak to the priorities of prospective students. According to the QS International Student Survey, 56% of prospective students looking to study in China will prioritise either subject reputation or overall institutional reputation when choosing a university.

Communicating the strength of their reputation through performance in independent rankings can be an effective way for institutions to demonstrate their credibility to students. Some 71% of students say that good performance in rankings is indicative of a good reputation, and only 11% of students looking to China will prioritise an institution’s rank without also prioritising reputation. A further 59% of students will also use a university’s rank to gauge the level of teaching quality at an institution.

Employability is a vital consideration

Graduate employability is another topic of significant importance to students. When choosing which course to study, just under half will prioritise their career path. Furthermore, one of the most desired marketing communication topics for students is information on work placements and links to industry which reiterates the necessity for institutions to incorporate employability into their recruitment strategies.

Finally, the ability to learn new skills is the most important career consideration for candidates. It’s clear that prospective students see their time at university as the best opportunity to upskill, making it vital for institutions to educate their students on how to articulate their skills development and how they can add value to potential employers. This factor takes on additional prominence to candidates from Southeast Asia, another region which will play an important role in determining international student numbers to China.

For institutions in China to gain market share from established international student destinations, employability and graduate skill sets will have to be as much of a priority for institutions as they are for students.

Strategic imperatives for 2030

This report urges leaders of higher education institutions in China to fully analyse the factors that are likely to influence global student flows. As national policy continues to encourage international recruitment, universities need to plan for a range of scenarios in order to be agile and adaptable in an unpredictable global environment.

Equip graduates with the skills employers need

The Talent Race Rebound scenario imagines a situation where the use of international education pivots from a soft power benefit to employment as a vital pipeline for skilled migration. Given the announcement of China’s new K visa, which aims to attract STEM specialists, international graduates could become a key factor in closing the skills gaps within China. Whether this scenario pans out or not, employers in both China and the rest of the world are seeking to hire graduates with the prerequisite skills to allow their organisations to achieve their missions. Ensuring students graduate with these abilities is paramount for universities.

Exploit supportive policies while global competitors struggle

If our Regulated Regionalism scenario manifests, China will be better placed than universities in other countries to attract international students through its generous scholarship programmes. The Belt and Road Initiative has given China a competitive advantage in key growth areas in Asia and Africa, which will likely offer a range of longterm benefits for students across the globe, for China’s higher education ecosystem, as well as wider society. Institutions in the country must ensure they maintain and grow their presence in the countries that this report highlights as key growth areas, such as Nigeria, Ghana, Thailand and Pakistan.

Grow reputation further

However, whatever shape the market takes in the latter half of the 2020s, reputation is going to be a significant driver of student flows globally. While China’s relatively affordable opportunities and scholarships are attractive, prospective international students are still seeking return on investment and good career outcomes from their tertiary education. A majority of students cite the importance of reputation when making study decisions, so, for Chinese institutions, building and maintaining international brand awareness and reputation is vital.