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Three diverging futures could redefine the UK’s global education position by 2030
There are three possible scenarios for global student flows in 2030 - and here’s what each one could mean for the UK, according to the Global Student Flows: UK report.
Want the full detail, data and recommendations? Download the complete report now.
The three possible scenarios
- Regulated Regionalism, where geopolitical fragmentation leads to strong intra-regional mobility and emerging destinations accelerate ahead.
- Hybrid Multiversity, a world of blended, tech-enabled models that reshape where and how students learn, featuring a strong push towards transnational campuses.
- Talent Race Rebound, a high-growth, globally competitive environment where nations aggressively seek international students as future citizens and workers.
Regulated Regionalism
Under Regulated Regionalism, the UK is likely to adopt amore restrictive and centrally-managed approach to international education. This scenario sees the government implementing policies aimed at reducing net migration rather than increasing student numbers.
As enrolment becomes more selective, application processes become more rigid, with a focus on reducing net migration. The ban on most international students bringing family members (dependants) to the UK, with the exception of those on postgraduate research courses and government-funded scholarships, continues to have a profound effect on applicants from key source markets such as India, Nigeria, and Pakistan, where bringing family was a major factor in choosing a study destination. According to the QS International Student Survey, students from Pakistan were twice as likely as the global average to bring a spouse or partner with them while studying abroad with candidates from Nigeria more than three times as likely.
Under the current and proposed policies, universities must also meet more stringent visa compliance rules or face penalties, such as a minimum of 95% enrolment and 90% completion rates for their international students. Institutions could also lose their ability to sponsor student visas if more than 5% of their student visa applications are rejected. This has led some institutions to reduce or suspend recruitment from certain countries deemed “higher risk”.
Further regulatory complexity and rising costs could lead some students to consider alternatives. While the UK’s post-study work offer, the Graduate Route, has been subject to review and potential changes, uncertainty remains. This, coupled with higher visa fees and the dependant ban, has contributed to a decline in international student demand, particularly for postgraduate taught courses. These restrictive policies, while designed to reduce net migration, have created an opportunity for other countries, including those in the Asia-Pacific region, to attract students who might have otherwise chosen the UK. This includes students from major source markets like India and China who might be increasingly likely to choose education destinations which are closer to home.
This scenario reflects a future where student mobility is not unrestricted, but intentionally guided. The UK remains a major destination, but enrolment is increasingly selective, transparent, and aligned with broader national capacity and regional development goals.
Hybrid Multiversity
The Hybrid Multiversity model shifts the international student journey by moving the initial phases of a degree offshore. Students begin their studies either online or at partner institutions in their home countries. This allows them to complete the initial stages of their learning before travelling to the UK for a shorter, more concentrated period of on-campus learning. The in-person component is focused on practical experiences such as internships or hands-on training, which are difficult to replicate remotely.
This model relies on credit transfer systems to ensure a smooth transition for students moving between different delivery sites. Courses would be standardised to meet UK academic standards, allowing for a seamless integration of offshore and onshore learning. By recognising micro-credentials and modular study, universities enable students to progressively build their qualifications. The final stages of the programme in the UK often culminates in industry-linked experiences or capstone projects, which are crucial for preparing students for the workforce and are a key reason for the on-campus presence. This structure reduces the time and cost associated with a traditional three-year degree, making UK education more accessible and appealing to a broader international audience.
The UK’s immigration policies, which have become more restrictive, would also play a role. UK government forecasts indicate that the proposals in its April 2025 immigration White Paper aimed at tightening visa rules, could cut 12,000 applicants from the Graduate Route and 19,000 from the Student Route. The hybrid model could offer a way for universities to maintain revenue streams and international presence without contributing to net migration numbers, aligning with the government’s dual goals.
However, the UK would need to navigate this landscape carefully. The government’s current visa rules on remote learning are strict, typically allowing a maximum of 20% “remote delivery” for a course. Any wider adoption of a hybrid model would require careful alignment with Home Office regulations to ensure compliance and avoid jeopardising a university’s ability to sponsor student visas.
Courses would also adapt by offering preparatory learning through blended delivery. Students could begin learning remotely and travel to the UK to transition to immersive learning when academic study starts. Institutions would reserve their physical campuses for activities that require hands-on learning, such as lab work and employer engagement. Campuses would increasingly specialise, and digital infrastructure would be strengthened to support offshore learners.
This model presents a more affordable, flexible alternative to full on-campus degrees, offering a way for universities to maintain revenue streams and international presence without contributing to net migration numbers. The UK can leverage its strong global brand and the reputation of its leading universities by focusing on the quality of the on-campus experience. The country’s unique cultural heritage and vibrant city life remain powerful draws for students seeking an immersive international experience, even if a portion of their degree is completed remotely. The model would require major reforms to the UK’s visa and education frameworks.
Talent Race Rebound
Talent Race Rebound outlines a scenario in which international education becomes a strategic tool for addressing skills shortages and demographic challenges. Following a period of tightening visa controls, particularly a ban on dependants for most international students and proposed changes to the Graduate Route visa, the UK government, in this scenario, repositions international education as a targeted pathway to attract and retain younger, highly-skilled talent in priority sectors.
Under this model, the UK adjusts its policy settings to reflect a more selective, outcomes-based approach. While overall international student numbers are being managed, exemptions and targeted pathways remain for priority groups such as research students and those in high-demand fields like healthcare, engineering, and technology. In these areas, visa pathways and sponsorship rules are applied more flexibly, aligning education and immigration policy with the country’s national workforce needs.
In this scenario, the UK would also redesign its post-study work rights. Proposals to shorten the two-year Graduate Route visa could be re-evaluated, and the Skilled Worker visa could be made more accessible for UK graduates. This would involve a points-based system where international graduates with UK qualifications and relevant work experience earn additional points. Salary thresholds for jobs in critical shortage areas like IT and advanced manufacturing would also become more flexible. This incentivises students to pursue careers in sectors with the most pressing labour needs.
For international students, this model presents a strong value proposition, offering recognised qualifications, clearer migration pathways, and growing job opportunities in key industries. For the UK, this scenario would be particularly appealing to students from India, China, and Nigeria, who are the largest sources of international students for the UK.
Ultimately, this scenario is a shift from open-ended migration toward a more selective, outcomes-based model. International education is positioned not just as a valuable export industry, but as a crucial pipeline for skilled migration. Students who meet specific criteria in terms of age, language, and qualifications are recognised as future contributors to the UK’s workforce and economy.
A new variable: Erasmus+ returns in 2027
Since Global Student Flows: UK was published, the UK has announced it will rejoin the Erasmus+ scheme from 2027. Erasmus+ is the EU’s flagship mobility programme, funding reciprocal student (and staff) exchanges and institutional partnerships across Europe. While this won’t override wider visa and migration constraints that shape degree-seeking international demand, it does reintroduce a major channel for intra-European mobility - and signals renewed education alignment with Europe. That could strengthen intra-European flows under Regulated Regionalism, support shorter and blended mobility in a Hybrid Multiversity future, and add another competitive lever if Talent Race Rebound accelerates.
What happens next for the UK?
Which of these futures becomes reality will depend on decisions made in the next few years - around migration policy, transnational education, workforce strategy and global partnerships.
For universities, policymakers and sector leaders, the question is no longer whether global student mobility will change, but how prepared the UK is for each possible future.
Read the full Global Student Flows: UK report for detailed data, modelling and recommendations.
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